The Hardest Days of the Pandemic May Be Drawing to a Close

Since the COVID-19 outbreak, people worldwide have struggled in the maelstrom of the pandemic for two years. But now, with the emergence of new variants, we seem to see the first glimmer of dawn.

I believe the hardest days may soon be behind us, and that the virus will let humanity off in 2022. This does not mean the novel coronavirus will disappear; rather, its impact on humans will weaken to an acceptable level. Having spread this far, the virus is unlikely to vanish from human society, but its virulence will drop substantially, no longer causing too much harm.

From ancient times to the present, humankind has faced countless plagues and ultimately survived them all; this time will be no different. Science has played a part, but far smaller than people expected. The pandemic has been resolved mainly through natural evolution. Uneven development has limited scientific tools by economic conditions. Many poor countries could not obtain vaccines and could hardly impose strict public-health measures without destroying people's livelihoods; their citizens could only rely on the virus's natural evolution to end the outbreak.

Every coin has two sides. The world's 7-odd billion people have not only created conditions for the spread of infectious disease but also for its rapid end. How can a huge population help end an epidemic quickly? Once a virus enters the human body, it has many opportunities to form chimeric viruses with certain existing, relatively harmless viruses. The larger the infected population, the higher and faster the chance of forming such chimeras. When the virus spreads to a certain point, new chimeric variants emerge that are far more transmissible but far less lethal; these variants quickly spread through the population and form an immune barrier.

An immune barrier should not be understood simply as no longer being infected. Being infected without dying, or even without falling ill, also constitutes an immune barrier. Just as a forest fire, once it has burned a certain area, dies out on its own, a plague, once it has spread to a certain degree, forms a natural immune barrier in the population that helps humanity end it.

Starting with Omicron, the threat to humans will weaken step by step until it is comparable to ordinary influenza; it cannot even be ruled out that it may recombine with influenza virus. New variants may appear next year, but these new chimeric viruses will be less harmful than previous ones, perhaps even milder than Omicron.

Omicron is spreading at an exponential rate and may reach every corner of the globe within the next 2-6 months. It is expected that in the first half of 2022, most people worldwide will have either been vaccinated or infected once or several times, acquiring some immunity, and an immune barrier will form.

I therefore cautiously optimistically believe that humanity can hope to emerge from this disaster in 2022 - our societies will gradually return to normal and the economy will recover, rather than remaining mired in the SARS-CoV-2 morass as some pessimistic prophets predict. Of course, I am not entirely certain; there are exceptions to everything, and conclusions based on common sense and logic may be wrong. To be prudent, we must remain highly vigilant, maintain precautions, and not let our guard down until sufficient data prove the risk is controllable.

Even as pandemic risk recedes, the population, resource, and environmental crises on Earth will not recede with it, so we still face many thorny problems. The most urgent is the global climate crisis; 2022 may be the hottest year on record, climate disasters may become frequent, and reduced harvests are inevitable. Energy conservation, emission reduction, saving water, and saving food should be a civic awareness etched into the bones of every modern person. I hope everyone will be a good citizen of the Earth and care for our shared home.

Plagues are always hard to avoid. Theoretically, once a city exceeds 500,000 residents, it becomes a breeding ground for infectious disease. There are now very many cities above 500,000 worldwide, so it is no surprise that a new infectious disease may strike humanity at any time. The COVID-19 pandemic may offer some lessons for better preventing future pandemics, but only if the world becomes more united.

The populist and nationalist sentiments now surfacing around the world may ease somewhat in 2022, because the sharpened antagonism between ethnic groups and social classes is itself closely tied to the pandemic; as the outbreak eases, social conflicts should correspondingly moderate. But given that global uneven development has accumulated into a deeply entrenched problem, I dare not be too optimistic on this point.

I sincerely hope the new year brings a substantial improvement, letting our fellow citizens who have struggled to survive through the pandemic catch their breath. I also hope everyone can live with more peace and happiness. Although disaster has indeed affected us, we can adapt by adjusting our inner selves.