Musk and Trump Burst the "Longevity Lie"

There are indeed some centenarians and long-lived elderly people in the world, but the majority of longevity data may be fabricated. Recently, the "longevity lie" in the United States was exposed by Elon Musk and Donald Trump. On March 4 this year, Trump said in a speech to the U.S. Congress that, according to Musk's investigation, a large number of Americans over 200 years old are still collecting pensions, and most absurdly, some Americans reportedly over 360 years old are still receiving pensions.

Is this phenomenon unique to the United States? No. The fabrication of longevity records by "longevity stars" is widespread worldwide. One of the winning studies of the 2024 Ig Nobel Prizes was precisely a study on the falsification of longevity data among people over 100.

The study was led by Saul Justin Newman, a senior researcher at the University College London Centre for Longitudinal Studies. His research shows that most data on human lifespans beyond 105 years are false. This means that centenarian longevity stars are not actually common; rather, statistical and other reasons have turned them into a beautiful wish rather than reality.

Newman's research found that many of the world's famous "longevity towns," such as Okinawa in Japan, Sardinia in Italy, and Bama County in China, all belong to places with poor birth and death records, where population birth and death data are too distorted. For example, Okinawa has a total population of about 1.46 million, and it used to claim that about 68 out of every 100,000 Okinawans could live to 100—roughly ten times the world average. But in 2010, a Japanese government review found that 238,000 of Japan's supposed centenarians were already missing or dead, and only 40,399 had verifiable addresses; as many as 82% of the so-called centenarians were various false or erroneous reports. If these false figures are deducted, the average number of centenarians in Okinawa is only about 125% of the global average—slightly above the world level, but not absurdly so.

Since Bama in Guangxi, China, branded itself as a longevity town, many local people in their eighties and nineties have been described as over 100 and received visitors as longevity stars, catering to the psychological needs of tourists from all over the country. Bama's longevity stars have become a spiritual anchor for many people with terminal illnesses. I have visited Bama for field investigation; in some parts of Bama, the longevity stars have even formed a distinctive county-level industry, and some patients longing for longevity rent houses there year-round, hoping to extend their lives.

Newman's investigation found that in the United States more than 500 people claim to be over 110 years old, but only seven have real birth certificates. Newman also investigated some European countries, such as Greece, and found that at least 72% of people over 100 in those countries and regions either cannot be traced or are involved in pension fraud.

There are too many motives for people to fabricate longevity lies. In some regions the purpose is to develop tourism; some people forge false documents to defraud government pensions; others fabricate longevity lies to seek personal fame and fortune; and still other so-called longevity lies are the result of rumor being repeated and accepted as fact.

Most longevity lies cannot withstand scrutiny, and those involving religious leaders are even more so, because some people hope to deify their idols. For example, during the Republican era, Hu Shi's textual research exposing the fabricated lifespan of Master Xuyun became a sensational cultural event.

Of course, not everyone's longevity is a lie. There are indeed a few people who can live beyond 105, and some even beyond 110, but their numbers are extremely small. The lifestyles of these long-lived elders also vary; their longevity seems to be determined more by genetics and luck.

Longing for longevity is only human nature, but human lifespan is not the longer the better. Most people in old age suffer from all kinds of pain and illness, and not every elderly person wants to live extremely long. Nature has set the limit of human life at around 120 years, and most people do not reach it. For each individual, perhaps quality of life is more meaningful than lifespan alone.