On How Natural Laws and Cultural Genes Shape an Epidemic
Bacteria divide once a minute, and viruses produce a new generation every 6–8 hours, so the pathogenic microbes of nature are not static. Myths often say, "One day in the cave, a thousand years in the world"—meaning a single day for the immortals is a millennium on earth. One human year is equivalent to "endless ages" in the microbial world, and over these "ages" viruses keep evolving, so that they are long since changed.The viral strain of a month ago is the great-great-grandfather of the strain now circulating. Just as sons differ from fathers, each generation of strain differs from the last. The character and virulence of the viral family keep changing over time, which means epidemic-control strategy must keep changing too. People's fear of the virus is partly caused by the virus itself, but more by the amplifying effect of the media in our information age.The virus may already have evolved on earth strains weaker than any now known, and these weaker strains may become the dominant strains in our country, evolving further still. They have simply not yet been discovered by us; relative to nature, human response is always sluggish. By the time we recognize a new strain for what it is, it has already taken hold.Incidentally, an epidemic never has just one circulating strain but a whole family of them. There are now over five hundred known Omicron variants circulating worldwide, and more are arising; their virulence may be stronger or weaker. These circulating strains are resistant to the earlier neutralizing-antibody drugs, which is why the WHO in mid-September this year advised abandoning two previously effective antibody therapies, since they are ineffective against Omicron variants.Humans can select seed for crops to advance agriculture; can select and breed domesticated animals to rear better offspring; and can likewise intervene in viral spread, letting weaker-virulence strains win the competition and become dominant, thereby greatly lowering the case-fatality rate.Promoting cross-regional population movement is the best way to let less-lethal strains spread widely. When a large population moves, weaker strains spread through hosts into regions where stronger strains prevail, speeding the evolution of the viral family, and giving less-lethal strains a chance to gain a foothold or even dominate.So holidays, to a certain extent, promote the evolution of the viral family; if guided, one could even deliberately spread weaker strains to other regions to replace stronger ones.For example, suppose the strain in Region A is weaker. We could use flexible measures to encourage A's residents to travel elsewhere and encourage residents of other regions to travel to A (such as issuing travel vouchers from A to elsewhere, and vouchers from elsewhere to A). If Region B has a more virulent strain, as long as information is transparent, B's residents, for safety, may spontaneously reduce going out and prevent infection, which can contain B's more virulent strain. The weaker strain could then gain the upper hand and become dominant.This process is a form of artificial selection, analogous to selecting and breeding plants and animals; humanity might borrow the agronomist's experience to manage the epidemic. With the right measures, it could not only lower the fatality rate but also boost the economy and improve people's livelihood—achieving many goals at once, to the benefit of the nation and its people. But this idea is only theoretically workable; no government has yet used it in practice, though it may become real in future pandemics.On the other hand, humans are one kind of living thing. Since time immemorial, all organisms are open systems, and humans are no exception. To maintain their internal metabolism, organisms must constantly exchange energy and matter with their environment.In this process, infection by viruses and bacteria is inevitable. But living things also possess homeostasis and irritability; organisms have many regulatory mechanisms by which they keep their internal conditions relatively stable, even when the environment changes.When the virus rages for long enough, the human body and mind, helped by vaccines, can also self-regulate, better adapt to the virus and transform it, and eventually reach a new balance with it. We may not escape the entanglement of COVID and its variants for the next hundred years, and the great majority of people will be repeatedly infected. But we will adapt to it, transform it, and keep researching new treatments for COVID and the complications and sequelae it induces.So we cannot view nature or humanity itself with static eyes. Perhaps a year from now, looking back, we will find that the fatality rate of circulating strains in the Chinese mainland may be only a few per ten thousand of the total population, not reaching the one-per-thousand level of Hong Kong and Taiwan.The fundamental reason for this lower fatality is not how advanced our critical-care medicine is, but that over time, aided by optimization, weaker strains will emerge and be artificially selected as dominant, while human adaptation to the virus strengthens, so that fewer and fewer patients need intensive care. Human wisdom is humanity's weapon for victory in the struggle against natural enemies (including viruses); the very reason our lifespan is twice that of our close relatives the chimpanzees is that our brains are more developed.Although fever clinics are swamped now, this is actually not worth worrying about, because most people are seeking care out of panic. Their lives are not truly threatened; even if they are not treated promptly, they will not die. As long as intensive-care wards are not overwhelmed, the death rate will not be high. Medical institutions need only ensure that severe patients are admitted in time to reduce deaths; non-severe patients can be left aside.Certain national traits of the Chinese people are also acting to slow the virus's rapid spread. Since our government relaxed controls, areas across China have achieved a reduction in gatherings that was hard to achieve under the earlier zero-COVID policy. This past weekend, the streets of Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Wuhan, and elsewhere were nearly empty—even quieter than during a city-wide lockdown—with people voluntarily shutting themselves at home to escape the plague.The Chinese are the world's most foresighted and most frugal people. We regard thrift and diligence as a virtue and family tradition, so many Chinese households have some savings; even those with none can turn to relatives. When people sense high risk, they spontaneously draw on savings or borrow from relatives. They will seek only food and shelter, reduce going out, and shelter at home. Even though this year the government did not encourage spending the holiday in place, I believe many families will still choose to do so.When residents automatically reduce movement, the epidemic spreads far more slowly. This eases the burden on our medical institutions and lowers the fatality rate. But it also slows the viral family's evolution, prolonging abnormal life and harming economic growth and social recovery. In fact, we should now encourage people to leave home and gradually return to normal life.Our own large family has dozens of members spread across more than ten cities nationwide, and so far none has shown symptoms of Omicron. This shows that in most places there are still only a few cases; although there are local outbreaks, the epidemic is far from a nationwide explosion. Everyone's attitude has turned cautious. Baidu's search index shows that "N95 mask" is now the hottest keyword, up more than sevenfold. The great majority are doing their utmost to protect themselves and their families from infection.It has been nearly eight months since Taiwan opened up, and people on the streets of Taipei still all wear masks. Not long ago, in Taiwan's local "nine-in-one" elections, politicians who canvassed without masks were roundly denounced across the political spectrum. According to Taiwan's official figures, only about a third of Taiwanese have been infected so far. That figure surely contains some inflation because testing has been insufficient, but at least another third may still be uninfected.In Australia, the U.S., and Europe, even now, many people in supermarkets still wear masks—mostly those with black hair and yellow skin. The caution of Chinese (and indeed of Asians) is deep-rooted; I believe we mainland Chinese will be no different from Taiwanese and these overseas Chinese.So our epidemic will most likely recede slowly, rather than ending in a few months or half a year as some experts claim. The virus's natural evolution and our cultural genes mean the shock to our medical system will not be as great as many imagine. After weathering one wave and gaining experience, our medical order will slowly recover, and social order will gradually return.There are reasons the Chinese nation has endured and the Huaxia civilization is the only ancient civilization still extant. Through war and plague we evolved a whole set of cultural genes for coping with disaster, and at critical moments these genes reduce the harm disaster does to us.Or, in biological terms, we Chinese are highly adaptable, which helps us better cope with sudden natural disasters. We should believe in ourselves, believe in the power of natural law and cultural genes, and believe in the power of the people.