No Need to Panic, but We Must Grow

At midnight last night, community workers knocked on our door to notify us of a citywide nucleic acid test today. This is the first time Beijing has conducted universal nucleic acid testing since the Wuhan outbreak, and it will be repeated three times in a row. I woke up very early this morning and, while the streets were still empty, took a stroll and stopped by the wet market. The vegetables there were plentiful, and vendors were unloading their goods. I asked the prices: white radish had been 0.99 yuan a jin a few days ago, but today it had already risen to five yuan, and there were basically no vegetables left under five yuan. I bought just a few kinds of vegetables to take home; we already have plenty of food, and hoarding more is pointless.

By the time breakfast was near, the residential compound had already begun the nucleic acid testing. Many elderly people, disregarding the fact that younger people had to get to work, rushed to be tested early, and were sent home by the staff. These elders basically never wear masks on ordinary days, yet now they are the first to rush up for testing. It is hard work dealing with the elderly, and this is one of the current difficulties of epidemic control.

Beijing's epidemic figures suddenly panicked everyone, and the last two days have seen panic-buying at supermarkets across the city, so price rises are inevitable. Actually, in my view, the current numbers are not that frightening; Beijing's schoolchildren and the vendors at the wet markets are all tested daily, and before now not many cases had been reported. So this wave, which arrived before the May Day holiday, will not be as severe as Shanghai's. We should be fortunate that the outbreak happened before May Day; had it come after the holiday, the numbers might have been quite terrifying, because during May Day many people travel within the city and go fruit-picking, when the risk of cross-infection is high.

This wave can spare Beijing a major surge of infections, but it has a side effect too: it will continue to feed the complacency of Beijing's residents. More and more people in Beijing are not wearing masks; at the compound's activity center almost no one wears one. Idle aunties dance in the square every day without masks, and hardly anyone wears one while the children play. Over-protected citizens no longer quite believe that risk still exists in Beijing; more than two years of relatively comfortable times have long since made Beijingers numb to the virus.

If a large-scale infection truly occurs, a nationwide wave could kill 2–6 million people. Some experts these days talk about the case fatality rate of COVID, but to my eye they are uttering nothing but soothing empty talk and nonsense. What we should focus on is the COVID death toll—those other patients who, because of COVID, cannot get timely care, or who commit suicide, should also be counted in. Moreover, now is not the time to calculate the case fatality rate, because the onset, progression, and death of a disease all take a process, and that process is not yet complete; rushing to compute a fatality rate now is meaningless and unprofessional.

So delaying the outbreak as long as possible is certainly best; at the very least it gives those who were initially reluctant to be vaccinated a chance to get vaccinated and reduce the death toll. But every delay also causes people to grow complacent and slacken their guard. Many people have developed the illusion that, relying on current prevention measures, we can defeat the COVID virus; this giant-baby mentality must not be allowed.

We must achieve personal growth during the plague years, learn to adapt to the virus, get vaccinated in time (mRNA vaccines are best), and wear masks and glasses. Surgical masks are now much less effective at preventing infection; when going to crowded places, wear an N95 mask, and it is best to wear glasses as well. I myself have worn glasses whenever I go out since the outbreak—I am not nearsighted, so I wear plain dust goggles. Why wear glasses? To guard against the virus infecting us through the conjunctiva of the eyes. Ordinary surgical masks cannot stop Omicron, and Omicron is also more easily transmitted via the conjunctiva than earlier viruses.

The next two or three months will be very grim. The virus may launch wave after wave of attacks, possibly breaking through the many layers of defense we have built, spreading nationwide and forcing us to coexist with it. So I hope all fellow patients who have not yet been vaccinated get vaccinated as soon as possible; elderly patients in particular must take note and be sure to stock up on about two months' worth of medicines and food, so they are not caught off guard when the time comes.

Even if we ultimately cannot hold the line, society will not collapse, so there is no need to worry about that. It is no longer early 2020; people now have a certain understanding of the COVID virus and are psychologically prepared. Moreover, COVID is not very lethal to the young and middle-aged, who are the mainstay of society; as long as this group does not die off in large numbers, society will not collapse, so some of the worry is superfluous. Once the defenses are fully breached, the hardest period may last 2–5 months, after which things will improve greatly; it is just that during this time many tragedies the eye cannot bear to see, yet must see, will occur—in the age of plagues, these cannot be avoided.

Make the fullest preparations for the worst, then set your mind at ease and live well!