Learn to Protect Yourself in the Post-COVID Era
Omicron is a watershed that divides the pandemic into two eras, before and after. Of course, some may feel this is not rigorous enough, but that is fine—time will prove it. No matter how unwilling humanity is, we now and in the future have to accept the reality that COVID-19 will long coexist with us.
It generally takes humanity 120-150 years to fully adapt to a new pathogen, so COVID-19 will more or less affect human health for the next hundred-plus years. However, the various control measures adopted by countries around the world will gradually be phased out starting in 2022. Some countries will move ahead and others will lag somewhat, but there will be no essential difference, because human life must eventually return to normal. When the secondary disasters caused by global lockdowns outweigh the harm caused by the virus itself, continuing global lockdown makes no positive sense.
The main tool we will use in the future against COVID-19 is vaccination—but we most likely will not develop a once-and-for-all vaccine against the coronavirus, because this RNA virus mutates too fast. Vaccines cannot help us completely avoid infection, but they have made great contributions in preventing severe illness and reducing case-fatality rates. For special populations—such as patients with underlying diseases who are not suited to vaccination or who have weak immunity—the best preventive measure remains personal protection during COVID-19 outbreaks: reduce gatherings and wear masks properly. The good news is that COVID-19 will arrive in waves rather than pester us year-round, so in the future we may not need to wear masks all the time, only in stages.
People will still die from COVID-19. WHO statistics show that currently about 40,000-50,000 people worldwide die of COVID-19 each week. Some studies show that current deaths are mainly caused by the Delta variant, while the mortality rate of the Omicron variant is much lower. Although Omicron has recently caused a surge in infections, the number of deaths in South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States has not risen significantly, and medical systems have not collapsed as they did during the first peak of infection. Moreover, the infection peaks in South Africa, the UK, and the US have passed one after another: South Africa has dropped off a cliff, the UK has declined after peaking, and the latest data show the same in some US states.
How many people Omicron will kill remains to be seen. Judging by the current case-fatality rate, the future mortality rate of COVID-19 may not be much higher than that of tuberculosis, and annual deaths from COVID-19 will probably be hard to exceed 2 million. Globally, about 1.5 million people die of tuberculosis each year, about 1.8 million of lung cancer, about 650,000 of influenza, and about 1.2-1.3 million in traffic accidents. Comparing these figures helps us build a more intuitive understanding of the post-COVID era.
In the short term, Omicron may infect the vast majority of the population outside China and North Korea within the next three months. Some current data show that new Omicron infections roughly double every three days. Two to the 33rd power is about 8.6 billion, while the world has only about 7 billion people. At the current rate, in about three months nearly all susceptible people in countries that have chosen to coexist with the virus will be infected—that is, more than half the world’s population will have Omicron. So this wave will draw to a close around the end of the first quarter.
If other countries move toward coexistence with the virus, populations that have kept stricter border measures will face the heaviest inbound pressure in the first quarter of 2022; after that quarter, the pressure eases considerably. The peak of such pressure may cluster around the major holiday travel period.
Which path a given society ultimately takes is a policy decision beyond my remit; he who holds no office does not plan its policies. On the whole, though, a cautious, data-driven posture—watching how the case-fatality rate evolves before deciding the next step—is the responsible stance as more real-world evidence emerges.
As an ordinary citizen, I care more about my own and my family health. When the epidemic was not severe, I gradually stocked up on enough medicines for my family for several months: vitamins A, B, C, E, and D for three months; various common-disease medicines such as cold remedies, antidiarrheals, and Chinese patent medicines for calming the spirit and aiding sleep, enough for 3-6 months; and several months supply of liver-protective drugs. These medicines are hard to buy during severe outbreaks, so one should plan ahead and stock up in advance rather than dig a well when one is already thirsty.
What medicines to stock depends on each family situation. If there are patients with underlying diseases at home, one should stock enough commonly used medicines for that disease for 2-3 months. Other common-disease medicines, such as for colds and diarrhea, can also be stockpiled in moderation. Of course, the most important thing is not stockpiling medicines but maintaining a regular routine, a balanced diet, an emotional equilibrium, frequent exercise, and more sun exposure in winter to boost immunity.
I have also stockpiled plenty of commonly used medicines for age-related diseases for the elderly at home. I often urge my father to buy protein powder nearby and take some dissolved in water every day, because his diet is low in protein. My father has a good habit: now that he is in the countryside, he spends every day at the doorway basking in the sun while playing on his phone or reading a book, and he also goes out to exercise often. Sun exposure and moderate exercise in winter both boost immunity. In Beijing, I keep my whole family exercising and take vitamins from time to time. My home always keeps three months of grain and oil on hand, as well as more than half a month supply of eggs and meat.
I harbor no wishful thinking. I have prepared myself psychologically for the whole family to be infected with Omicron or some variant after it. I have always been used to making the fullest preparations for the worst case; as long as we can cope with the worst outcome, there is nothing to fear. For a virus that will eventually infect all humanity, being afraid is useless, and no family can necessarily escape it. Preparation ensures success; lack of it spells failure. Be prepared so that when the time comes you will not panic.
Since the outbreak, social media worldwide has been flooded with emotional remarks, and exaggerated reports and articles keep appearing. Although I can freely receive information from all over the world, I have grown tired of reading what is mostly emotional garbage, and I prefer reading books. Reading steadies the emotions and keeps one composed in handling things. So I also suggest that in this era we set up some reading plans, lest we be wrapped up in the emotions of our restless compatriots and follow them in saying and doing foolish things. As long as we prepare from many angles, we can still safeguard our quality of life during the epidemic. When everyone protects themselves well, society becomes much more peaceful.