Prepare Well, Reduce Risk
Beijing's epidemic has flared up over the past few days, and many people have panicked, asking me how the outbreak will unfold. Because my earlier predictions have mostly been accurate, some friends hope to get some guidance from me.
Regarding how the epidemic will develop, I already wrote about it before New Year's Day. I noted that with the spread of new variant viruses, the COVID-19 pandemic has reached a watershed, and people will be forced to adapt to the virus; no country can avoid it—it is only a matter of timing.
At least up to now, I see no sign that I need to revise the predictions I made before New Year's Day. Our government is currently adhering to the dynamic zero-COVID policy, which is a highly responsible approach toward the people's lives and safety. This can buy us some time as the epidemic evolves, and the time the government has won for everyone is extremely valuable. I hope all my fellow patients make the most of this transition period: those who have not yet been vaccinated should go get vaccinated without delay.
Personally, I do not at all rule out the possibility that the epidemic could slip out of control in a few months. The Omicron variant is extremely transmissible, and the fortress of epidemic prevention is hard to defend but easy to breach. Once human effort cannot overcome nature, we must do everything possible to reduce the case fatality rate. As for the general public, many people have grown tired of the fight against the epidemic; in my Beijing neighborhood, I see 90% of people not wearing masks when they gather in the community square, which makes prevention and control all the more difficult.
Although the current vaccines cannot prevent infection, Hong Kong's data show that the case fatality rate among the vaccinated is only one-eighteenth of that among the unvaccinated. So I hope all fellow patients who have not yet been vaccinated get vaccinated as soon as possible and stop delaying. There are always people demonizing vaccines, but such remarks are not credible; among the cancer patients I have encountered so far, very few have experienced serious side effects from vaccination.
Cancer is a chronic disease with a long course of treatment; once a regimen is effective, it must be continued for a period of time. Even if the dynamic zero-COVID policy continues to succeed overall, at the level of a specific city or residential compound it is still hard to guarantee that you will not be locked down. These are extraordinary times, and logistics could be disrupted at any moment as the epidemic evolves, so it is best to keep a two-month supply of medication on hand and avoid a situation where treatment is interrupted just because supply lines are cut. The medicines cancer patients take are life-saving; an interruption could cause the disease to spiral out of control. Right now, any place or residential compound across the country could be locked down at any time, so I hope all fellow patients embrace the principle that preparedness prevents hardship and routinely keep about two months' worth of medicine on hand—do not wait until you are sealed in to panic about drugs. In addition, during this period every household should also stock up on a certain amount of food, especially urban residents.
Only by preparing for rain before it comes can we remain calm in a crisis. Under the dynamic zero-COVID policy, we need to stockpile medicines and supplies, and we also need to prepare ourselves psychologically for the possibility of lockdown life. Once large-scale community transmission truly occurs, no local government has the capacity to be perfect. Humankind has faced plagues continuously from ancient times to the present, and society bears enormous pressure each time one strikes. In such extraordinary times, everyone has a duty and responsibility to protect themselves; some people make no preparations at all, and once the epidemic erupts they inevitably find themselves in dire straits. That is why I hope everyone prepares thoroughly and reduces their risk.