A Unified Reply on the Trajectory of COVID-19 and Vaccination

Lately many ask me how the pandemic will go and whether to get the COVID-19 vaccine. A unified reply: the pandemic will not end; the vaccine can and must be taken. I finished my second dose on March 1; my seventy-something father with coronary disease and constipation has also been vaccinated. I took Sinovac; we are all safe.

After so long fighting, everyone is fatigued; social isolation is hard to keep, fewer wear masks, and long isolation itself causes problems. Society cannot stay closed forever. It will reopen, and the unvaccinated will be most at risk.

Reported infections are only the tip of the iceberg; actual cases may be 5-10 times the published number. With so many infected, COVID-19 cannot disappear. Its impact will last over a century and alter the human genome; many without antibodies, and their offspring, will be selected out. COVID-19 will persist like tuberculosis; do not expect eradication. We must adapt to long-term coexistence.

Vaccination is the only way out; it lowers mortality, but even universal vaccination will not stop some deaths.

Germany's Federal Health Ministry data of May 14, 2021 showed over 8 million fully vaccinated, yet about 13,000 still caught COVID-19 (0.16%), with 662 deaths. Publishing this is good; data are better than none, transparency better than secrecy. By this ratio, even after global herd immunity, millions may die yearly—roughly the global road-death toll.

These numbers are normal; without vaccination more would die. Few vaccines offer 100% protection. Despite universal BCG, tuberculosis kills over a million yearly—WHO says 1.57 million died of TB worldwide in 2017, about the global COVID-19 toll of 2020; people simply do not know it.

Eventually the public will treat COVID-19 as we treat tuberculosis now: mostly not caring, no mass campaigns; only professionals will track it. Those who want permanent border lockdowns and doubled quarantine are naive. Herd immunity is the only way; refusers are the most vulnerable.

To live and restore normal life, vaccination is the only path. Do not hesitate; get vaccinated, and stop asking me—soon I will charge, I am truly fed up. Doctors on site will tell you if you are unsuitable.

Risk is unavoidable in life; dying from vaccination is far less likely than dying in a car crash. Do we stay home every day for fear of accidents? With the global pandemic continuing, we have no choice but vaccination.

During the pandemic, many anti-intellectuals emerged among officials, media, and self-media, spreading conspiracy theories and manipulating public emotion. State media attacked other countries' vaccines relentlessly, politicizing the pandemic and vaccination, breeding vaccine fear. These politicians and media bear heavy responsibility for low uptake. Exercise discernment.

Whatever grievances exist between nations, countries, or individuals, COVID-19 requires unity. Stoking narrow nationalism and conspiracy theories now is drinking poison to quench thirst. I believe most people are clear-headed and will not refuse vaccines over ignorant talk.